Transport Assessment and Risk Analysis: the Case of Rădăuţi By-Pass Project
Tomme: LIX (LXIII) Fascicle: 3 | 2013
Pages: 19-28
Abstract text:
The objective of this paper is to present a new methodology for evaluation transport infrastructure projects and test it on a road project from the North-Eastern region of România, Rădăuţi. In the majority of the cases the transport infrastructure evaluation is made by the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in order to produce aggregated single point estimates. New research has proved that the embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as pre-defined investment costs, travel time savings, vehicle operating costs, accident costs and environment pollution, are of high significance. This paper investigates the impacts of these parameters in terms of the optimism bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of costs and the overestimation of benefits. By extending this principle into stochastic modelling where a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is applied, so-called feasibility risk assessment, is provided by moving from point-deterministic CBA to interval-stochastic QRA, results. Hereby, decision support as illustrated in this paper will aim to provide assistance to the decision makers in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport projects. Finally the paper presents the results and conclusions regarding the case study.
Key Words:
transport infrastructure; risk analysis; cost benefit analysis
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